Executive Summary

Q4 2024 revenue declined 9.3% year over year to $13.54B as global margin conditions softened; GAAP EPS rose modestly to $4.36 due to a $195M gain on the sugar JV sale, while adjusted EPS fell to $2.13 on lower Processing and Refined Oils performance .
Agribusiness adjusted segment EBIT dropped 43% YoY to $364M (Processing down; Merchandising up), while Refined & Specialty Oils adjusted EBIT fell 25% YoY to $160M on North America headwinds tied to biofuel policy uncertainty .
FY25 outlook introduced: adjusted EPS ≈ $7.75; tax rate 21–25%; net interest $250–$280M; capex reduced to $1.5–$1.7B from prior $1.9–$2.0B; D&A ≈ $490M; excludes Viterra/CJ Selecta impacts and further buybacks .
Capital return remained a catalyst: $500M repurchased in Q4 ($1.1B FY24), with management reiterating additional buybacks post-Viterra close; liquidity strong with $8.7B committed facilities unused and $3.3B cash at year-end .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

Merchandising outperformed: adjusted EBIT rose to $123M vs $46M YoY, helped by Financial Services, Ocean Freight and global grains; included $14M Ukrainian business interruption recovery .
Robust capital allocation: FY24 adjusted FFO of $1.68B supported $1.1B share repurchases and maintained dividends; RMI exceeded net debt by ~$2.3B; adjusted leverage ~0.6x .
Strategic portfolio moves: Completed sugar JV sale (recorded $195M gain; +$1.36 EPS) and advanced regulatory processes for Viterra and CJ Selecta; CEO emphasized readiness for integration and sustainability milestones (100% soy traceability/monitoring in Brazil) .

What Went Wrong

Processing margin compression: adjusted Processing EBIT fell to $241M vs $593M YoY, with Europe softseeds and North/South America weakness outweighing strength in Europe/Asia soy crush; FX losses also pressured results .
Refined & Specialty Oils headwinds: adjusted segment EBIT declined to $160M vs $212M YoY, driven primarily by a more balanced N.A. supply/demand and U.S. biofuel policy uncertainty dampening refining premiums .
Lower consolidated profitability: adjusted total EBIT decreased to $445M vs $837M YoY; adjusted EPS fell to $2.13 vs $3.70 YoY; corporate costs included $59M acquisition/integration charges tied to Viterra .

Financial Results

Metric	Q4 2023	Q3 2024	Q4 2024
Revenue ($USD Billions)	$14.94	$12.91	$13.54
GAAP Diluted EPS ($)	$4.18	$1.56	$4.36
Adjusted Diluted EPS ($)	$3.70	$2.29	$2.13
Gross Profit ($USD Billions)	$1.25	$0.77	$1.08
Gross Margin (%)	8.4% (derived from $1.25B/$14.94B)	6.0% (derived from $0.77B/$12.91B)	8.0% (derived from $1.08B/$13.54B)

Consensus vs Actual (Wall Street estimates via S&P Global):

Due to a SPGI request-limit error, consensus estimates for Q4 2024 were unavailable at time of analysis; therefore, beat/miss vs estimates cannot be determined. Values retrieved from S&P Global were unavailable.

Segment Performance (Adjusted Segment EBIT)

Segment	Q4 2023 ($MM)	Q4 2024 ($MM)	YoY Δ
Agribusiness (Adjusted)	$639	$364	-$275
• Processing (Adjusted)	$593	$241	-$352
• Merchandising (Adjusted)	$46	$123	+$77
Refined & Specialty Oils (Adjusted)	$212	$160	-$52
Milling (Adjusted)	$30	$24	-$6
Corporate & Other (Adjusted)	-$83	-$114	-$31
Non-core Sugar & Bioenergy (Adjusted)	$39	$11	-$28
Adjusted Total EBIT	$837	$445	-$392

Selected KPIs

KPI	Q4 2023	Q4 2024
Agribusiness Volumes (000 MT)	20,522	19,965
Refined & Specialty Oils Volumes (000 MT)	2,272	2,305
Milling Volumes (000 MT)	836	897
Share Repurchases ($MM)	—	$500 (Q4)
Adjusted FFO ($MM, FY)	$2,466	$1,682
RMI vs Net Debt ($B, YE)	—	RMI exceeded net debt by ~$2.3B

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Adjusted EPS	FY 2025	—	≈ $7.75	New outlook
Adjusted Effective Tax Rate	FY 2025	—	21–25%	New outlook
Net Interest Expense	FY 2025	—	$250–$280M	New outlook
Capital Expenditures	FY 2025	$1.9–$2.0B (preliminary)	$1.5–$1.7B	Lowered
Depreciation & Amortization	FY 2025	—	≈ $490M	New outlook
FY 2024 Adjusted EPS	FY 2024	≈ $9.25 (Q2 & Q3 updates)	At least $9.25 (affirmed in Q3)	Maintained

Notes: FY25 outlook excludes impacts from announced acquisitions (Viterra, CJ Selecta) and additional share repurchases .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Q2 2024 (Prev-2)	Q3 2024 (Prev-1)	Q4 2024 (Current)	Trend
Viterra integration & timing	Most approvals in place; expect close in “next several months”	Conditional EU clearance; expect close late 2024/early 2025	Late-stage approvals; plan to update combined guidance after close	Progressing; commercial synergy planning begins post-close
Biofuels policy (45Z/RVO)	Uncertainty; refining premiums expected to moderate	Energy demand soft; refining resilient; global demand supportive	Assuming lower U.S. crush and refining premiums; clarity could be upside	U.S. uncertainty persists; global demand constructive
South America logistics (take-or-pay)	Industry pressure on margins; farmer selling slow	Farmer selling slow; logistics tightened	2024 take-or-pay impacts exited; expect 2025 improvement	Improving set-up for 2025
Merchandising & Ocean Freight	Below baseline amid transition to lower prices	Below baseline; ocean freight impacted by lower flat price	Conservative outlook; biggest YoY delta in freight	Cautious; opportunity if trade flows shift
Meal inclusion & demand	Robust global meal demand; U.S. crush hedge coverage	Strong meal demand; less competition from wheat/mid-proteins	High inclusion rates; animal protein economics supportive	Sustained strength
Capex program & cadence	FY24 at high end; FY25 prelim $1.9–$2.0B	FY25 up, taper in 2H26	FY25 lowered to $1.5–$1.7B; baseline capex run-rate in 2H26	Lower near-term spend; normalization by 2H26
Sustainability/traceability	Pilot winter canola; blockchain traceability initiative	—	Achieved 100% soy traceability/monitoring in Brazil	Advancing ESG execution

Management Commentary

CEO on 2024 execution and outlook: “While we didn't end the year as we expected and our forward visibility is limited by the increased geopolitical uncertainty, we are confident that the work we've done to further strengthen our business will allow us to continue to create value…” .
CFO on Q4 drivers: “Reported results included a favorable mark-to-market timing difference of $1.25 per share and a net positive impact of $0.98 per share… Adjusted core segment EBIT was $548 million… versus $881 million last year” .
CEO on biofuels/global flows: “Soy is very competitive right now… we are seeing more global biofuel demand outside the U.S.… soybean meal demand has been very good” .
CFO on capex outlook: “We expect CapEx of $1.5 billion to $1.7 billion… down from the preliminary estimate of $1.9 billion to $2 billion we provided you previously” .
CEO on sustainability: “We became the first global commodity exporter capable of 100% traceability and monitoring of both our direct and indirect soy purchases in Brazil’s priority regions” .

Q&A Highlights

2025 guidance conservatism and puts/takes: Management assumes lower U.S. crush margins and refining premiums amid 45Z uncertainty; expects South America improvement, with H1/H2 earnings cadence 40%/60% .
Merchandising dynamics: Outlook conservative; ocean freight is the biggest YoY delta with potential upside as policy/trade flows clarify .
Viterra & CJ Selecta: Near-term EPS impact unclear until post-close; CJ Selecta targeted mid-teen returns on ~$600M purchase; remaining $800M buybacks planned opportunistically .
Biofuels feedstock mix & policy: Policy clarity could rapidly lift soybean oil demand; discussion of winter canola CI pathways and potential import restrictions on UCO/tallow to level the playing field for U.S. farmers .
Export logistics and meal absorption: U.S. capacity to export soybean oil and meal expanding (Gulf and PNW terminals); market can absorb additional meal as capacity ramps through 2026 .

Estimates Context

SPGI/Capital IQ consensus for Q4 2024 was unavailable due to a request-limit error at time of retrieval; beat/miss vs estimates cannot be determined. Values retrieved from S&P Global were unavailable.

Where estimates may need to adjust:

Given adjusted EPS of $2.13 and segment margin compression in Processing and Refined & Specialty Oils, near-term Street models likely reduce margin assumptions and lift Merchandising contribution modestly; FY25 capex reduction to $1.5–$1.7B may lead to lower depreciation/interest vs prior preliminaries .

Key Takeaways for Investors

Mix-shift under the surface: GAAP EPS benefitted from non-core JV sale, but core adjusted profitability fell on Processing and N.A. Refined Oils; Merchandising provided a partial offset .
Policy is the swing factor: U.S. biofuel policy clarity (45Z/RVO) could quickly firm refining premiums and soybean oil demand; management’s guidance embeds conservatism pending clarity .
South America set-up improving: Exit of take-or-pay constraints and expected normalization in Brazil/Argentina should aid Processing margins into 2H 2025 .
Capex prudence: FY25 capex cut ($1.5–$1.7B) vs prior preliminaries supports FCF and balance sheet flexibility ahead of Viterra close; look for capex normalization in 2H26 .
Liquidity and buyback capacity: Strong liquidity ($8.7B undrawn facilities; $3.3B cash) and $800M remaining buyback authorization post-close provide capital return optionality .
Near-term trading implications: Without consensus visibility, stock reaction hinges on biofuel headlines and Viterra closure milestones; watch H1/H2 EPS cadence and Merchandising/ocean freight prints .
Medium-term thesis: Post-Viterra, greater crop/geographic diversification and synergy capture should stabilize earnings power across cycles; specialty oils/customer mix and sustainability leadership underpin durable returns .

Citations: Press release and 8‑K financials ; 8‑K 2.02 & exhibits ; Q4 2024 call transcript ; prior quarter references .

Bunge Global SA (BG)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary